Looking at the future potential costs for LED bulbs

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The LED lamp has been used now for a couple of decades. One of the main uses for LED bulbs has been the small light on switches which glow red when the switch is turned on. The use of LED bulbs for this application has been largely due to the inherent reliability of LED technology. Also the extremely small wattage necessary to drive LED lamps mean that the power consumption is minimal.

It was the restriction on the LED illumination levels that held back the use of LED's in other applications. Then investment in the LED technology over the last 20 years has meant that there have been dramatic improvements in the LED lamp. As a result of the technological research LED's can now be produced with a level of light output comparable to small to medium sized standard light bulbs. Also the research has resulted in miniaturisation which means the complex circuitry can now be easily fitted into LED bulbs of a sensible size. The remaining hurdle for these products is the ability to manufacture at a low enough cost to make them economically viable.


Analysing the price of LED bulbs.

When LED bulbs first hit the market in around 2008 as a contender in the energy saving light bulb arena their costs where prohibitively high. Around the year 2007 at the point at which LED bulbs were launched into the energy saving light bulb market their costs were very high. It was between 2007 and 2008 when LED bulbs were initially produced as energy saving light bulbs but at this stage their costs were very high. As an example a candle light bulb which used the LED technology rated at 3watts would be over 20 pounds in cost. At this time a 3 watt candle light bulb would typically cost in excess of £20. By contrast in 2010 then it is possible to purchase the same LED candle light bulb typically at £12 but in some cases as low as £10.

LED Bulbs are very good when it comes to electricity consumption. A 3watt LED will produce the same level of light as an old style 25 watt light bulb. This means that LED bulbs will give you approaching a 90 percent saving in your electricity bill. The LED bulb will typically have a lifespan of 30000 hours compared to 1000 hours for a normal light bulb. By performing a cost of ownership calculation then you will see that if you buy and LED bulb and run it for its long lifetime this will save you typically £108 , which I am sure you will agree is an outstanding saving. In spite of these huge savings the original purchase price of LED bulbs is high.

Predicting future costs of LED bulbs

Running an analogy with IT technology then you will see performance increases of a factor of 2 every 18 months. It would be necessary to have a 12W LED bulb to give the same light level as a conventional 100W bulb. This factor of 4 performance increase would then take six years to happen if we draw the analogy with what has been seen in the IT world.